A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom          下载免费PDF全文

Peter Metcalfe  Keith Beven  Barry Hankin  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1734-1748

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   

Finite‐element modelling of physics‐based hillslope hydrology,Keith Beven,and beyond          下载免费PDF全文

Keith Loague  Brian A. Ebel 《水文研究》2016,30(14):2432-2437

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On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources     

Charles A. Stock  Michael A. Alexander  Nicholas A. Bond  Keith M. Brander  William W.L. Cheung  Enrique N. Curchitser  Thomas L. Delworth  John P. Dunne  Stephen M. Griffies  Melissa A. Haltuch  Jonathan A. Hare  Anne B. Hollowed  Patrick Lehodey  Simon A. Levin  Jason S. Link  Kenneth A. Rose  Ryan R. Rykaczewski  Jorge L. Sarmiento  Ronald J. Stouffer  Franklin B. Schwing  Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.  相似文献   

Getting Lost in Cities: Spatial Patterns of Phonetically Confusing Street Names          下载免费PDF全文

Keith Chan  Maria Vasardani  Stephan Winter 《Transactions in GIS》2015,19(4):535-562

A large street network is likely to contain duplicated or similar sounding street names. These conflicts can cause confusion in communication between people or in machine‐human interaction. Municipal authorities have begun to see the importance of uncovering these existing street name conflicts and mitigating future ones, for improved record keeping, emergency response, etc. However the commonly used Soundex phonetic algorithm is generally considered to produce poor similarity results in terms of uncovering street name conflicts. This study reports on a new fusion algorithm that combines phonetic methods and approximate string matching for street names, weighted by street type suffix (Avenue, Boulevard, Court, etc.), to quantitatively measure the collision/confusion potential presented by a pair of streets. This algorithm is then applied to the entire street network in Greater Melbourne, Australia, and the pattern of collisions at various spatial scales, and within municipalities, is mapped. The goal of this work is to produce better tools that can aid policy makers, administrators and industries dealing with location‐based services to make better decisions when assigning and disambiguating street names.  相似文献   

A bundle adjustment approach with inner constraints for the scaled orthographic projection     

Keith F. Blonquist 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2011,66(6):919-926

Bundle adjustment is a method for simultaneously calculating both the interior and exterior orientation parameters of a set of images, and the object-space coordinates of the observed points. In the case of long focal length lenses and narrow field-of-view (FOV) imaging situations, collinearity based (perspective projection) algorithms may result in linear dependencies between parameters that cause solution instability. The use of a scaled orthographic projection model based on linear algebraic formulations was therefore adopted to reduce this risk. Using quaternions, a new mathematical model is derived that includes the partial derivatives as well as the inner constraint equations for a scaled orthographic bundle adjustment. The model was then tested using two image sets of a single, small vessel (about 6 m length) with a cube target of known dimensions at two distinct ranges; perspective solutions were also calculated for comparison. RMS residual errors of 0.74-0.78 pixels associated with the new method compare favorably to a residual error range of 0.59-0.74 pixels using a perspective bundle adjustment of the same target points. Relative precisions (as a ratio of target size) of between 1:1650 and 1:750 have been achieved at ranges of 375 m and 850 m, respectively, given comparisons with the known cube dimensions. A third image dataset consisting of a network of 16 images was solved with a 1:2200 relative precision showing the new method can successfully handle high redundancy. For the experiments that were conducted, the new method was found to produce less precise results than the perspective bundle solution for a FOV of 0.50-0.65° where the object fills 5-8% of the image. However, it was found to match the precision of the perspective model (with an uncalibrated camera) for a FOV of 0.20-0.30° where the object of interest fills only 1-2% of the full image.  相似文献   

Hurricane effects on subtropical pine rocklands of the Florida Keys     

Sonali Saha  Keith Bradley  Michael S. Ross  Phillip Hughes  Thomas Wilmers  Pablo L. Ruiz  Chris Bergh 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):169-184

We investigate the effects of Hurricane Wilma??s storm surge (23?C24 October 2005) on the dominant tree Pinus elliottii var densa (South Florida slash pine) and rare plant species in subtropical pine rocklands of the Lower Florida Keys. We examine the role of elevation on species abundance in 1995 (Hurricane Betsy in 1965), 2005 (Hurricane Georges in 1998), and 2008 (Hurricane Wilma in 2005) to investigate if hurricanes influence abundance by eliminating plants at lower elevation on Big Pine Key, the largest island in the Lower Florida Keys. We compare densities before and after Hurricane Wilma over the 2005?C2008 sampling period and examine the role of elevation on changes in pine and rare species densities three years after Hurricane Wilma. We use elevation to assess the impact of hurricanes because elevation determined whether a location was influenced by storm surge (maximum surge of 2 m) in the Lower Florida Keys, where pine rocklands occur at a maximum elevation of 3 m. In 1995 (30 years after a major storm), elevation did not explain the abundance of South Florida slash pine or Chamaecrista lineata, but explained significant variation in abundance of Chamaesyce deltoidea. The latter two species are rare herbaceous plants restricted to pine rocklands. In 2008, 3 years after Hurricane Wilma, the positive relationship between elevation and abundance was strongest for South Florida slash pine, C. deltoidea, and C. lineata. Effects of Hurricane Wilma were not significant for rare species with wider distribution, occurring in plant communities adjacent to pine rocklands and in disturbed rocklands. Our results suggest that hurricanes drive population dynamics of South Florida slash pine and rare species that occur exclusively in pine rocklands at higher elevations. Rare species restricted to pine rocklands showed dramatic declines after Hurricane Wilma and were eliminated at elevations <0.5 m. Widely distributed rare species did not show significant changes in density after Hurricane Wilma. Abundance increased with elevation for South Florida slash pine and C. lineata after the hurricane. In an environment influenced by sea level rise, concrete plans to conserve pine ecosystems are warranted. Results from this study will help define conservation strategies by strengthening predictive understanding of plant responses to disturbance in the backdrop of sea level rise.  相似文献   

Changes in the Geometry and Volume of Rabots glaciär,Sweden, 2003–2011: Recent Accelerated Volume Loss Linked to More Negative Summer Balances          下载免费PDF全文

Keith A. Brugger  Latysha Pankratz 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(2):265-278

Terminus geometry, ice margins, and surface elevations on Rabots glaciär were measured using differential GPS during summer 2011 and compared with those similarly measured in 2003. Glacier length over the eight years decreased by ～105 m corresponding to 13 m a^?1, a rate consistent with ice recession over the last several decades. Measured changes in surface elevations show that between 2003 and 2011 the glacier's volume decreased by ～27.6 ± 2.6 × 10⁶ m³, or 3.5 ± 0.3 × 10⁶ m³ a^?1. This compares favorably with an estimate of ?28.1 ± 2.6 × 10⁶ m³ based on a mass‐balance approach. The rate of volume loss appears, however, to have significantly increased after 2003, being substantially greater than rates determined for the intervals 1959–80, 1980–89, and 1989–2003. This increase corresponds to a sustained interval of more negative summer balances. Previous work suggests that as of 2003 Rabots glaciär had not yet completed its response to a ～1°C warming that occurred c. 1900, and thus the current marked increase rate of ice loss might reflect the effect of recent, or accelerated regional warming that occurred during the last decade superimposed on its continued response to that earlier warming.  相似文献   

Public engagement on solar radiation management and why it needs to happen now     

Wylie A. Carr  Christopher J. Preston  Laurie Yung  Bronislaw Szerszynski  David W. Keith  Ashley M. Mercer 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):567-577

There have been a number of calls for public engagement in geoengineering in recent years. However, there has been limited discussion of why the public should have a say or what the public can be expected to contribute to geoengineering discussions. We explore how public engagement can contribute to the research, development, and governance of one branch of geoengineering, solar radiation management (SRM), in three key ways: 1. by fulfilling ethical requirements for the inclusion of affected parties in democratic decision making processes; 2. by contributing to improved dialogue and trust between scientists and the public; and 3. by ensuring that decisions about SRM research and possible deployment are informed by a broad set of societal interests, values, and framings. Finally, we argue that, despite the nascent state of many SRM technologies, the time is right for the public to participate in engagement processes.  相似文献   

Summer surface circulation on the Newfoundland shelf and grand banks: The roles of local density gradients and remote forcing     

Jinyu Sheng  Keith R. Thompson 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):257-284

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Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea     

Hyun-Chul Lee  Thomas L. Delworth  Anthony Rosati  Rong Zhang  Whit G. Anderson  Fanrong Zeng  Charles A. Stock  Anand Gnanadesikan  Keith W. Dixon  Stephen M. Griffies 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):327-340

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.  相似文献